Today the DOC released its preliminary ruling on antidumping tariffs for imports into the US, which is significantly below the requested duties by Cleveland-Cliffs, apart from China. Several countries were exonerated, and others were found liable for only single-digit antidumping tariffs.

The DOC preliminarily determines that the following estimated weighted-average dumping margins exist for tin mill products1:

1.- HTSUS subheadings 7210.11.0000, 7210.12.0000, 7210.50.0020, 7210.50.0090, 7212.10.0000, and 7212.50.0000 if of non-alloy steel and under HTSUS subheadings 7225.99.0090, and 7226.99.0180 if of alloy steel (amid the written physical description within the scope of this investigation, unless expressly excluded). 2.- Adjusted the estimated dumping margin (122.52%) for export subsidy (10.54%) included in the companion CVD investigation.

Chinese tin mill imports into the US represented 12.5% of total tin mill imports in 2022. Given the preliminary rulings, we expect that import volumes from China will shift significantly to other markets, as the combined AD and CVD duties will make them too expensive. In the case of Canada and Germany, we expect less import volume reduction into the US as they only got a single-digit tariff. Canada and Germany represent a share of 17.2% and 17.8%, respectively, over total US tin mill imports in 2022.

Regarding critical circumstances (retroactive payment of antidumping tariffs), no country except China was found liable. Given such a ruling, duties (retroactive suspension of liquidation and posting of a cash deposit) will be imposed for tin mill products from China that entered, or withdrawn from the warehouse, for consumption from the publication of the notice in the Federal Register to 90 days before. It is to be noted that China’s tin mill imports are also subject to CVD preliminary duties, which range from 89.02% (Shougang Jingtang and all other producers & exporters) to 542.55% (Baoshan).

Final determinations by the DOC on the above preliminary antidumping ruling are being postponed (combined with extending provisional measures, if applicable) for no later than 135 days (on or around January 8, 2024) after the date of publication of the preliminary determination on AD duties in the Federal Register for the following countries: Canada, Germany, South Korea, the Netherlands, Taiwan, Turkey, and the United Kingdom. For China, as no request was made, the DOC will make its final determination no later than 75 days after the date of its preliminary decision (October 31, 2023). There is still a possibility that preliminary duties could be lowered or eliminated, especially for Germany and Canada.

We expect that the approved preliminary duties on some tin mill imports into the US will limit the price fall of imports in the next annual negotiations.